Homeowner Perception and Equity Growth Remain Steady as 2018 Comes to a Close

Staff Report

Wednesday, December 12th, 2018

The difference between owners' estimates of home values and appraisal values increased in November, although it was still an extremely narrow spread, at a national level. Across the country, appraised values were an average of 0.36 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to Quicken Loans' National Home Price Perception Index (HPPI).   

Adding to the good news of owners and appraisers aligning on home values, is the growth of appraisal values across the country. Quicken Loans' National Home Value Index (HVI) erased a slight dip from the previous month with a 0.53 percent increase in November. The annual gains follow a trend that has been consistent the last few months. Nationally, the average home appraisal was 5.01 percent higher than it was in November 2017.

Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

This year has not produced much monthly movement in the gap between home appraisals and homeowners' expectations. In fact, the difference has remained below half a percent since March, with little month-to-month variation. At a metro level, Chicago is the only area with appraisals more than 2 percent lower than what homeowners estimated. Boston, Denver and Charlotte were on the other side of the spectrum – each with the average appraisal coming back more than 2 percent higher than expected in November.

"Homeowner perception staying at a steady level is a sign of a sturdy housing market," said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. "Some homeowners may not be as aware of home value changes as the professionals who study the real estate market every day, so any large, sudden, spikes or drops in home values, are often reflected by a swift widening gap in the HPPI."

Home Value Index (HVI)

The Quicken Loans HVI reported annual home equity growth continuing to march ahead at a consistent pace. Monthly change, however is a reflecting slower, more measured increases. This is the story across the country. Not only from the national, aggregate, level but in every region – to varying degrees. Home values rose by about half of a percent in all four regions measured by the HVI, while they all posted annual growth from 4 to 6 percent. 

"Home values continue to increase but the rate of increases has started to slow.  For much of 2018, interest rates have been rising causing the combined price and associated payment to give some buyers pause," said Banfield. "The economy appears to remain strong with a low unemployment rate suggesting home prices could continue to increase even if at a slower rate."

 

HVI
November 2018

 

January 2005 =
100

HVI
November 2018

vs.

October 2018

% Change

HVI
November 2018

vs.

November 2017

% Change

HPPI
November 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI
November 2017

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

National
Composite

110.35

+0.53%

+5.01%

-0.36%

-0.67%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Geographic

Regions

 

HVI
November 2018

 

January 2005 =
100

HVI
November 2018

vs.

October 2018

% Change

HVI
November 2018

vs.

November 2017

% Change

HPPI
November 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI
November 2017

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

West

135.06

+0.42%

+6.16%

-0.23%

-0.43%

South

112.26

+0.52%

+4.70%

-0.33%

-0.70%

Northeast

102.87

+0.51%

+3.66%

-0.40%

-0.78%

Midwest

91.13

+0.41%

+4.53%

-0.48%

-0.79%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

 

Metropolitan

Areas

 

HPPI

November 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

October 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

November 2017

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

Boston, MA

+2.92%

+2.93%

+1.63%

Denver, CO

+2.47%

+2.46%

+2.36%

Charlotte, NC

+2.26%

+2.21%

+1.16%

Minneapolis, MN

+1.94%

+1.94%

+0.70%

San Jose, CA

+1.94%

+2.47%

+2.11%

Seattle, WA

+1.87%

+2.24%

+2.19%

San Francisco, CA

+1.57%

+1.63%

+1.93%

Dallas, TX

+1.39%

+1.46%

+3.25%

Las Vegas, NV

+1.24%

+1.28%

+0.61%

Kansas City, MO

+1.08%

+1.26%

+0.64%

San Diego, CA

+0.98%

+0.91%

+1.13%

Portland, OR

+0.86%

+1.15%

+1.47%

Washington, D.C.

+0.84%

+0.88%

-0.12%

Atlanta, GA

+0.81%

+0.80%

-0.36%

Phoenix, AZ

+0.67%

+0.71%

+0.46%

Sacramento, CA

+0.64%

+0.70%

+1.06%

Riverside, CA

+0.45%

+0.57%

+0.32%

Los Angeles, CA

+0.32%

+0.45%

+0.99%

New York, NY

+0.10%

+0.26%

-0.43%

Miami, FL

-0.14%

+0.00%

+0.86%

Detroit, MI

-0.16%

+0.05%

+0.28%

Houston, TX

-0.48%

-0.62%

-0.31%

Tampa, FL

-0.65%

-0.68%

-0.01%

Baltimore, MD

-1.06%

-1.02%

-2.24%

Cleveland, OH

-1.09%

-0.97%

-2.35%

Philadelphia, PA

-1.10%

-1.03%

-2.33%

Chicago, IL

-2.11%

-2.12%

-1.37%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.