Storms are in the forecast for much of Georgia this week.  Some of the predictions that began well before an accurate forecast window were downright crazy.  The most sensational predictions of what would happen using the most unreliable models are the ones that grab our attention and get shared most often.

If you’ve looked at any of social media in the past week, you’ve likely seen outlandish predictions of snowfall for much of the state.  The first models began predicting this when a lot of north Georgia was covered in snow.  

They were immediately believable to many, as human nature is always to see the future as a trend line of the present.  Human nature is also too often overly negative, and thus it’s easy for some to compute that “the next one will be even worse”.

This column is being written and filed as the prediction window is closing and we have a general idea of accuracy – as much as any snow or ice event can be foretold with accuracy in Georgia.  It appears some of what was forecast will come true, even if not in the insane amounts in some of the original models.  

Some of the state will be left out, though it will be bitterly cold.  Other parts of Georgia that rarely see frozen precipitation will have a few days they’ll be talking about for a while.

So were the models right?  The predicted something, somewhere.  Something is actually going to happen, but a lot of the details changed.  Nuance matters in whether we’re declaring the predictions right or wrong.

The same day this column is being filed there are a lot of other things going on.  

We’re remembering Martin Luther King, Jr.  While few articulate it, we’ve been having a somewhat passive aggressive national conversation about what “equality” means, having the word “equity” substituted by many without achieving the buy-in needed for true social change.

We’re observing the peaceful transition of power in Washington. We must acknowledge that this remains a modern miracle, even if it seems a tenuous one.  

We have a reported case of bird flu in Georgia’s poultry industry, which while currently contained is a threat to one of the state’s largest agriculture industries and our food supply. Jobs and the price of chicken hang in the balance.

We have questions about whether TikTok is an issue of free speech (something that a unanimous Supreme Court declared it is not), or an issue of national security.  We have questions if a President has the unilateral authority to create an extension of implementing a law out of whole cloth, or if one can unilaterally declare the Constitution amended.  

And, breaking late, we again have the questions of pre-emptive pardons.  We’ll be questioning the legality of a pardon that declares no crime has been committed, while also arguing over whether or not a precedent has been set for blanket pardons for many who have actually been convicted.

That’s a lot going on for a column about the weather.  But this isn’t about the weather.  It’s about our ability to use thin data points to draw conclusions about the future.  Most of us, frankly, are quite bad at this.

I posted on X, formerly Twitter, about the bird flu case last Friday afternoon – including screen shots of the entire release.  One line, which I repeated, stood out: “All poultry activities in Georgia are suspended.”

The tweet went somewhat viral, receiving over a quarter million views. Most who replied didn’t have the knowledge to understand what that line meant in the context of the poultry industry, nor did they attempt to read the release.  

Retweets with commentary quickly began from the fringes of the left and right. Not surprisingly, many were quick to blame the political boogeyman of their choice.  It was unfortunate how few wanted to understand the problem or seek solutions.  

The reaction, whether it’s for a foot of snow or that an industry we rely on could be frozen in time, is to fight about what we think we know – and blame the people we don’t like.

The forecast in Washington this week is for a new administration.  We already know from his first term that it will be somewhat unconventional.  There will be grandiose statements that send many to their fainting couches.  Promised results will be as bombastic as 18” of snow on St Simons Island.

Too many of us have already decided if our predictive models suggest if President Trump is right or wrong.  History’s judgement will likely be more nuanced.  He and Congress will get some things right, some wrong, and some will be debated in perpetuity.

It’s now time for governing.  It’s best to take the President’s statements seriously, yet not literally.  There will be plenty of time to measure what accumulates.  For now, just let it snow.